🚨 Stephen Miran Report: US-Centric Global Trade Order Restructuring Strategy
Economics Feed | 2025.04.01
We introduce a key report that forms the theoretical basis for the initial economic policies being pursued by Trump's second administration. Currently, the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies are being implemented based on the contents of this report, drawing attention from Wall Street and Congressional aides.
Key Contents of Stephen Miran Report: US-Centric Global Trade Order Restructuring Strategy
- Dollar Weakening Policy
- Aggressive Use of Tariffs
- Leverage Military Protection in Trade Negotiations
- Revaluation of U.S. Gold Reserves
- Restructuring a U.S.-Centric Global Trade Order
View Original Document
1️⃣ Stephen Miran Report: US-Centric Global Trade Order Restructuring Strategy
The report "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System" written by Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) in the Trump administration in November 2024, presents specific economic strategies to redefine America's trade structure and economic hegemony.
Miran diagnoses that the current global trade system poses a serious threat to U.S. manufacturing and economic security, and advocates for key strategies to overcome this. Several aspects of the report (tariffs, leveraging security threats) are already being implemented, and the remaining plans are highly likely to be pursued as well.
2️⃣ Main Contents of the Miran Report
💸 Dollar Weakening Policy
Miran points to the overvaluation of the dollar's value as the root cause of America's persistent trade deficit. He analyzes that a strong dollar increases the price of American products in international markets, resulting in a structure where exports decrease and imports increase.
To address this, he advocates for aggressively pursuing policies to artificially lower the dollar's value. Specific measures include U.S. government and Federal Reserve intervention in foreign exchange markets, low interest rate policies, and expanded liquidity supply to lower the dollar's value, thereby seeking to expand exports and improve the trade balance.
He believes such a currency weakening policy can serve as the foundation for reviving American manufacturing.
⛴️ Aggressive Use of Tariffs
Miran argues that tariffs should be viewed not simply as protective measures but as strategic weapons. He diagnoses that cheap imports from low-wage countries such as China, Mexico, and Southeast Asia have seriously eroded manufacturing within the United States.
Therefore, he suggests that the U.S. government should aggressively utilize tariffs as follows:
- Impose high tariffs on key industries (steel, semiconductors, energy, automobiles, etc.) to protect domestic production bases
- Use tariffs as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations to pressure counterparts to accept trade demands
- Emphasize using tariffs not as permanent protection but as negotiating leverage to maximize bargaining power
🪖 Leverage Military Protection in Trade Negotiations
Miran criticizes that the military protection provided by the United States has been a public good provided free of charge. His perspective is that the U.S. has been protecting allies at enormous cost while suffering losses in terms of trade.
Accordingly, he advocates for a strategy linking security provision with trade negotiations:
- Demand reciprocal trade concessions from allies dependent on U.S. military protection (Japan, South Korea, Germany, NATO, etc.)
- For example, countries that need U.S. military protection must agree to trade readjustments as desired by the U.S. if they want tariff benefits in the American market
- This represents a new diplomatic strategy that breaks down the traditional separation of military power and economic power
👑 Revaluation of U.S. Gold Reserves
Miran also proposes a fiscal strategy utilizing America's gold reserves. The United States holds about 8,000 tons of gold, but it is valued at official book prices, thus undervalued compared to market value.
He estimates that revaluing gold at market value would create new fiscal assets worth about $750 billion. These assets could be used for strategic investments such as rebuilding American industry, debt repayment, and economic defense.
He emphasizes that this should be seen not as a one-time fiscal acquisition but as a catalyst for long-term economic restructuring.
🇺🇸 Restructuring a U.S.-Centric Global Trade Order
Miran's ultimate goal is to restructure the global trade order with the U.S. at its center. He presents a vision to resolve global trade imbalances and restore American manufacturing and economic hegemony through a comprehensive strategy of dollar weakening, tariffs, military power, and gold asset utilization.
He advocates for preferring bilateral negotiation systems centered on the United States over multilateralism (WTO system), and creating new trade norms led by the United States.
3️⃣ Critical Analysis: Risks and Limitations for the Modern Global Economy
While Miran's assertions represent a bold strategy that puts American interests at the forefront, there are significant concerns about various serious problems and global economic side effects they could cause.
⛓️💥 Ignoring the Interconnectedness of Global Supply Chains
Today's global supply chains and financial markets are complexly intertwined, and if the United States unilaterally implements tariffs and dollar weakening policies, it could trigger unpredictable chain reactions such as global trade retaliation, financial instability, and foreign exchange market chaos.
In particular, it could cause internal economic instability due to the burden on American consumers (price increases) and surging prices of imported products.
🤝 Damage to Diplomatic and Security Relations with Allies
Using military protection as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations could seriously damage trust relationships with traditional allies.
The mixing of security issues and economic issues risks weakening America's diplomatic position and, furthermore, reducing the ability to respond jointly to competitors such as China and Russia.
🔭 Possibility of Weakening Long-term Competitiveness
While tariffs and protectionist measures can protect American industries in the short term, they could lead to slowed innovation and reduced industrial competitiveness in the long term.
Additionally, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners could severely impact American export industries.
⚡️ Temporary Effect of Gold Revaluation
Securing assets through gold revaluation is merely a temporary expansion of fiscal room, and does not solve structural fiscal deficit problems or productivity improvement issues.
4️⃣ Bold Strategy vs. Complexity of the Global Economy
While Miran's report presents a bold strategy for the recovery of the American economy and revival of manufacturing, there are criticisms that it is a dangerous approach that ignores the complex reality of the global economy. Especially considering the international backlash and economic uncertainty that could result from attempts to build a unilateral US-centered order, concerns are being raised that such a strategy may have low long-term sustainability.
5️⃣ Conclusion
While it remains uncertain how faithfully the Trump administration will follow Miran's report's proposals, the initial policy direction so far largely aligns with the report's suggestions. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully examine the contents of this report in predicting and responding to future U.S. economic and trade policies.
With the possibility of rapid changes in the global economic order in mind, governments and businesses of each country should prepare various scenarios in response to changes in U.S. policy.