🚨 Climate Change Impact: The New Driver of Rising Food Prices

Today Korean Economic News | 2025.07.05

📌 Climate change hurts farm and seafood production, food prices can rise up to 3% when temperature increases by 1 degree

💬 Extreme weather caused by climate change has become a new major cause of rising food prices worldwide. Research shows that when temperature rises by 1 degree, food prices can increase by up to 3 percentage points. In the UK, hot and dry weather reduced fruit and vegetable harvests, causing prices to jump. In Japan, extreme weather made coffee bean prices rise, leading to coffee product prices increasing by up to 55%. In Korea, heavy rain and unusual temperatures made radish and cabbage prices rise sharply, and rising sea temperatures reduced fish catches, pushing up seafood prices. Experts warn that climate change is becoming a structural factor threatening food security.

1️⃣ Easy to Understand

When you go grocery shopping recently, you might notice that vegetables, fruits, and fish cost much more than before. Now we know that this isn't just because of economic reasons - it's also because of climate change.

Let me explain how climate change affects our food in simple terms. Global warming makes temperatures rise and changes rainfall patterns, making it hard for crops to grow properly. When it's too hot or too dry, vegetables and fruits don't grow well. Sudden heavy rain or drought can destroy crops.

For example, in the UK this summer, it was too hot and there wasn't enough rain, so fruit and vegetable farms were badly damaged. This reduced the harvest, and when there wasn't enough supply, prices went up sharply. In Japan, extreme weather in South American coffee-growing regions made coffee bean prices skyrocket, causing the price of a cup of coffee to rise by 55%.

Korea is no exception. This year's heavy summer rains flooded cabbage and radish fields, greatly reducing harvests. Also, global warming has raised sea temperatures, making it difficult for fish to live, so fish catches are decreasing. All of this ends up affecting the money we pay at the grocery store.

Research shows that if Earth's temperature rises by just 1 degree, food prices can go up by 3%. For a family that spends 500,000 won per month on food, this means an extra 15,000 won. If climate change continues, this burden will get even bigger.

In the end, climate change is no longer just an environmental problem for the distant future - it has become a real economic problem affecting our household budgets right now.

2️⃣ Economic Terms

📕 Food Prices

Food prices are indicators showing the price levels of food items like rice, vegetables, fruits, meat, and seafood.

• Food makes up about 14% of the total consumer price index.
• Food prices react sensitively to climate change, diseases, and international commodity prices.
• Lower-income families spend more on food, so they are hit harder by rising food prices.

📕 Climate Change

Climate change is the phenomenon where temperature, rainfall, and weather patterns change due to global warming.

• Since the Industrial Revolution, increased greenhouse gas emissions have raised Earth's average temperature by about 1.1 degrees.
• It directly affects primary industries like farming, fishing, and forestry, disrupting food supply.
• The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, floods) are increasing.

📕 Food Security

Food security means everyone can always access enough safe and nutritious food.

• It consists of food availability, access, utilization, and stability.
• Reduced production and rising prices due to climate change are major threats to food security.
• Poor food security can cause social unrest and political conflicts.

📕 Supply Shock

Supply shock is when the supply of goods or services changes suddenly due to unexpected events.

• Natural disasters, wars, and diseases are main causes, with climate change recently emerging as a new factor.
• Supply shocks can lead to price increases and inflation.
• For agricultural products, the impact of supply shocks is immediately reflected in prices because they are hard to store.

3️⃣ How It Works and Economic Outlook

✅ How Climate Change Affects Agriculture

• Let's analyze the specific impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and their economic effects.

  • First, rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are directly reducing crop yields. Most crops have optimal growing temperatures, and when temperatures go beyond these ranges, yields drop sharply. For example, rice shows the highest yield when the average temperature during the growing season is 22-23 degrees, but yields decrease significantly when it exceeds 25 degrees. Changes in rainfall also have a big impact. Too little causes drought, and too much causes flooding that damages crops. The recent damage to cabbage and radish from heavy rains in Korea is a typical example. These climate changes are greatly increasing the instability of agricultural production.

  • Second, changing patterns of pests and diseases are increasing crop damage. As temperatures rise, insects that used to die in winter are now surviving and reproducing. Also, new pathogens are appearing or existing ones are becoming more active, increasing crop damage. This leads to increased pesticide use, raising production costs while also negatively affecting the environment. Organic farming is particularly vulnerable to increased pests and diseases from climate change because chemical pesticide use is limited.

  • Third, frequent extreme weather events are destroying agricultural infrastructure. Increasing extreme weather like typhoons, heavy rain, and hail are directly hitting agricultural facilities. Greenhouse damage, flooded farm equipment, and damaged storage facilities are weakening the agricultural production base. Repairing this damage costs a lot of money, and these costs are eventually reflected in crop prices. Also, damage to irrigation systems and water management facilities reduces agricultural productivity in the long term.

• Climate change is having multi-layered and complex impacts on agriculture, acting as a structural cause of rising food prices.

✅ Climate Change Impact on Fisheries and Seafood Price Changes

• Let's look closely at how marine environment changes affect fishing and seafood prices.

  • First, rising sea temperatures are changing fish habitats and migration routes. As global warming continues to raise ocean temperatures, cold-water fish species are moving north. The decline of Alaska pollack and cod caught in Korean waters is a typical example. While subtropical fish species are increasing, they don't match existing consumption patterns, negatively affecting fishermen's profitability. Also, as fish migration timing and routes change, it's becoming difficult to secure enough catches with traditional fishing methods.

  • Second, ocean acidification and increasing red tide phenomena are spreading fishing damage. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are making oceans more acidic, causing problems in shell formation for shellfish like clams and oysters. Also, rising water temperatures frequently cause red tide, greatly damaging aquaculture. When red tide occurs, farmed fish often die in large numbers, causing huge economic losses for fishermen. These phenomena are repeating, making stable seafood supply difficult.

  • Third, rising sea levels and changing salt concentrations in coastal areas are also having an impact. Rising sea levels are flooding coastal fish farms or increasing salt damage. Also, changing rainfall amounts are altering the amount of fresh water flowing into the sea through rivers, changing salt concentrations in coastal waters. This affects coastal ecosystems and worsens living conditions for crustaceans like shrimp and crabs. In Korea's case, seaweed farming like laver and kelp is important, but these are very sensitive to temperature and salt concentration changes, causing large production fluctuations.

• Marine environment changes are seriously damaging fisheries just like land agriculture, becoming a major cause of rising seafood prices.

✅ Global Food Price Increases and Impact on Korean Economy

• Let's analyze the specific impact of worldwide food price increases on Korea's economy and households.

  • First, Korea's high dependence on food imports reveals structural vulnerability. Korea's grain self-sufficiency rate is very low at about 20%, making it vulnerable to international food price changes. Korea depends on imports for most major grains like wheat, corn, and soybeans, so damage to production areas from climate change is immediately reflected in domestic prices. Also, rising feed grain prices lead to higher livestock prices, pushing up overall food prices. In this structure, global food crises from climate change can hit Korea harder.

  • Second, different income groups are affected differently, potentially deepening social inequality. Lower-income families spend a higher percentage of their income on food, so they are hit harder by rising food prices. According to Statistics Korea data, the bottom 20% of households by income spend about 26% on food, while the top 20% spend only 11%. Therefore, rising food prices from climate change can further deepen income inequality. Rising fresh food prices can particularly lead to worsening nutrition among low-income groups, potentially becoming a social problem.

  • Third, overall price increases and monetary policy are also expected to be affected. Continued food price increases could lead to overall consumer price index increases, affecting the Bank of Korea's monetary policy decisions. Climate change-induced price increases are likely to be structural rather than temporary, making it difficult for central banks to respond. Even if they raise interest rates to control prices, supply-factor price increases are hard to control and could actually shrink the economy. This will be a new challenge for Korea's economic policy management.

• Rising food prices from climate change are expected to have widespread impacts on Korea's economy as a whole, making systematic response measures urgent.

4️⃣ In Conclusion

Rising food prices from climate change are no longer a temporary phenomenon but the beginning of structural change. Research showing that food prices can rise by up to 3 percentage points when temperature increases by 1 degree is a warning showing the reality we will face in the future.

The impact of extreme weather phenomena appearing around the world on agriculture and fisheries is more serious than we think. The UK's soaring fruit and vegetable prices, Japan's 55% coffee price increase, and Korea's rising agricultural and seafood prices all show examples of climate change's direct impact on our dining tables.

Especially in countries like Korea with high food import dependence, these changes can cause even greater damage. With grain self-sufficiency at only 20%, global food crises are immediately reflected in domestic prices. What's more worrying is that lower-income families spend more on food, potentially deepening social inequality.

However, these crises are also new opportunities. Developing agricultural technologies that can adapt to climate change, introducing new production methods like indoor farming, and improving food self-sufficiency through local agriculture development can be solutions. Also, individual efforts like reducing food waste and establishing sustainable consumption patterns are important.

The government should secure food security by building agricultural infrastructure resistant to climate change, expanding support for farmers, and strengthening emergency food stockpile systems. Companies should also invest in developing sustainable agricultural technologies and introducing eco-friendly production methods.

In the end, the food crisis from climate change is a complex challenge that threatens the sustainability of not just the environment but the entire economy and society. Now is the time for all economic actors to work together wisely to respond to climate change and build a sustainable food system.